This may be a stupid question but I’m going to ask anyway. Why are we in a recession almost every 8 or 10 years? There was a recession in 1981, 1991, 2001 and now 2009 ? Was there a recession before 1981 and beyond ? Why cant it stay the same for 10 years or more without a recession ?

October 13th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
Without getting political, there is a valid economic theory, called the Kondratieff Cycles, and yes, they happen every eight to ten years – there are “long” and “short” waves… the long ones (which we’re in) are particularly nasty- pretty much and macro economics textbook or Wiki has a good writeup on it- they just happen to land near election years – coincidence? You decide — I’m staying OUT of that argument.
October 13th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
Its called Bubbles… They burst. When people all jump onto the same ship, overtime it sinks. One of the main drivers of this recession was the nearly universal belief in the magic of homeownership.
It went like this…
1 – the fabled belief that the only way for average people to get ahead in the US was through homeownership.
2 – So, banks seeing how popular this belief was, lowered their standards for lending to people who could never afford a house in the beginning.
3 – by doing this, banks started charging crazy fees.
4 – normal people – idiocally – kept getting loans loaded with up front fees that were paid out as bonus from the banking and real estate to people who originated/processed the loans.
5 – the banks, brilliantly – atleast at first it seemed brilliant – sold off these loans as bonds to investors.
6- home building companies kept building homes , because there seemed like an infinite amount of buyers willing to pay nearly any price.
7 – all seemed well because the circle was working, house prices were going up, because more people were getting loans, and more people were taking out loans, because they wanted to get a house before the prices shot up to far…. Then the bottom fell out. Houses got to expensive and the loans people took out started to reset – meaning they had loans were the monthly prices could go up through the roof if interest rates changed.
7 – people were unable to make their payments and let their homes go into foreclosure.
8 – People who could afford their homes, but planned on selling them to retire and move became stuck, because now their home was worth less, because it was next to a foreclosed property.
9 – the lowering of house prices made some people with new loans, those who refinanced and people who took out equity from their homes (because they believed prices would never fall ** see fallacy in point 1) now own homes that were less than they owed the bank. A fraction of these people started to walk away.
10 – home equity borrowing had been a driver in economic growth. Now, people could not borrow to spend against the money in their home to buy tvs, jewelry, vacations and pay for college.
11 – now retailers and stores started laying off employees.
12 – welcome to 2009.
There is plenty of blame to go around, society in general for falling for such a dumb idea; the banks for lending to people who could never reasonably afford or payback thier mortgages; the government for not regulating banks and/or educating the general public about the dangers involved in having WAY TOO LARGE OF A LOAN.
But, in general, this is how many recessions start…. 1 “ABSOLUTE TRUTH” gets accepted by FAR TOO MANY PEOPLE.
Same thing happens with commodities like Gold, Oil, and believe it or now, at one point TULIPS…. thats right flowers.
October 13th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
Amidst all the media panic, the president crying fire in a crowded theatre, etc, people are forgetting that recessions are very NORMAL and are NATURAL in any economy. There are always boom periods and bust periods. Recessions allow for technological restructuring, and force inefficient businesses out of the marketplace, making long-run growth better for everyone.
October 13th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
its cus of the presidents
the more they cut the taxes the more we get in debt
it may sound dumb, but if they make us pay a wee bit more taxes the gov will have more to spend on things and wont have to borrow from other countries, u can do the research, its cus bush lowered our taxes that we r in this recession